Alden Bates' Weblog

So a roundup of the political parties:

National: AKA the Cult of Key, is the current government. Chances are they'll win the election, but who knows what will happen before then. We've already had Nicky Hager's book come out throwing light on the grimy tactics National has been using to smear the opposition, and Kim DotCom is planning more revelations closer to the date. Certainly John Key seems to be able to shake off most controversy and still poll well. Without him as its head, the National Party would not being doing nearly so well.

Labour: haven't really done anything to distinguish themselves as candidates for government. David Cunliffe lacks Key's charisma and they've basically been overshadowed by National Party antics such as Gerry Brownlee creating security breaches at airports, along with the minor parties doing more to undermine National than Labour is. If they win the election, like National's victory in 2008 and Tony Abbott's win in Australia, it will be more down to the incumbent party not winning.

The Green Party: Doing the best out of the minor parties, but any minor party has a struggle to overcome the two-party system.

The Maori Party: Its influence seems to be waning since the Mana party split. It's unclear how well they'll be doing post election, but I think they'll pick up a seat or two.

Mana/Internet Party: Key kinda created a beast when he tried to have Kin DotCom locked up. The partnership between Mana/Internet will likely ensure the Internet Party will have representation, where they might not have managed it on their own, though their influence will be minimal...

And the "It's that guy!" parties:
Winston Peters: New Zealand First will likely get back in again.
Peter Dunne: Likewise Peter Dunne will likely get back in, though his fortunes apparently depend on National bending over.
ACT: So far the last two ACT candidates have been disgraced out of parliament, but if the people of Epsom opt to be Key's puppets once again, I guess the ACT candidate will get in.
Conservative Party: It's unclear why the media keeps humouring Colin Craig when he's in no danger of winning an electorate seat and his party isn't polling high enough on its own. I'm hoping this election is the last we hear of them.